Investment Outlook 2022

What trends will characterize 2022? How should investors be positioned in the current environment? Find out more about Vontobel’s baseline scenario and get an overview of the backstory from our experts.

 

Harder – better – tougher – greener

Four buzzwords for investment year 2022

The latest macro-economic data leave us in no doubt as to where we currently stand in the economic cycle: the growth high point is definitively behind us. That not only applies to Emerging Markets, which are one step ahead of the cycle due to the pandemic, it is equally applicable to leading economic powers including the USA and the Eurozone. Still, we do not think that is reason for concern.

Return to new highs

Behind us lies a barnstorming race to make up lost ground during which we did see the markets catch up. It is worth keeping that fact in the back of our minds when we hear talk of “slowing growth”. It is also borne up by the continuing stable environment and well-filled order books – notwithstanding selective supply bottlenecks and soaring energy prices.

  

What investors should have on their checklist in 2022

Learn more about the four investment themes by clicking on the tiles below:

  

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Rising inflation will continue to affect the financial markets 2022 (icon with line chart)
Inflation
normalization

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Inflation normalization
Inflation: this will be one of the most important developments to watch over the year.

Background: the reopening of the global economy after the Covid-related lockdowns caused a global inflation surge in 2021. The energy crisis and the supply-demand mismatches responsible for this increase will start to fade in 2022.

Our assessment: We continue to expect inflation to come down from high levels over the course of 2022. This normalization will probably also determine the pace at which central banks reduce monetary stimulus.
Investing in times of Covid-19: virus symbol illustrates the impact of the pandemic (icon)
Covid-19
scars

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The (long) Covid legacy
Discussions around high corporate taxation, wealth redistribution and the price tag of the pandemic will enter economic debates in 2022.

Background: While still very present, Covid-19 appears to be less of a worry as we enter 2022. New variants are a risk, but likely manageable in 2022.

Fiscal support was key to avoid more severe recessions. With a slow withdrawal of pandemic support measures, the legacy of the Covid economic shock will start to appear in 2022.

Our assessment: in 2022, discussions will center around high government debt ratios and how to put economies on a path towards fiscal sustainability - even if strong deleveraging trends are unlikely to start soon.
Investment opportunities 2022: China’s New Forces will continue to open up interesting perspectives for investors in 2022
China’s
worries

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China’s moving forces
Western diplomatic relations with China appear to be improving although new confrontations between China and the US or the new “AUKUS” Asia-Pacific alliance remain a risk.

Background: China’s slowing growth will once again be noticeable in 2022 with growth of 5.5% expected based on the fact that the property and construction industries account for a large part of China's economy.

Our assessment: Chinese domestic policies will be widely discussed abroad next year. We expect that authorities will intervene to support a gradual structural adjustment of the real estate market without large negative impact on economic activity.
Investing in a greener economy is one of the key themes for investors in 2022
Climate
urgency

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A climate crisis will follow on from the health crisis
There will be pressure on companies and governments to incorporate sustainability goals into their investment decisions.

Background: Awareness of climate change policies is increasing, as is the urgency for drastic (re)action. Society as a whole expects concrete steps in the aftermath of the November 2021 COP26 summit.

Our assessment: Emergency measures to reach carbon neutrality will intensify. As economies recover from the pandemic, the focus of society - and of governing bodies – is shifting from the seriousness of the pandemic to climate change awareness and policy responses.

At the same time, the quality of ESG data will continue to improve in 2022 and that will influence requirements for transparent sustainability reporting from companies and governments.

  

  

Preview of the live presentation


Should we expect higher taxes for both individuals and companies in 2022? Peter Romanzina on how economic growth can help to overcome the debt mountain. He discusses the Vontobel Investment Outlook 2022 with Frank Häusler and Christine Maier. © Vontobel

In the video presentation we answer the following questions:

  • Which uncertainties can already be rebutted by taking a look at current figures?
  • What, in our view, is to be expected from the specter of inflation – and how do we think the central banks will react?
  • How should investors be positioned in 2022?
  • Wall Street correspondent Jens Korte in New York comments on the macro-economic outlook.
  • Podium discussion with Vontobel investment experts answering questions from the live stream audience.


The live stream took place in English and German. You can access the English version by changing the language in the main menu.

 

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  • More about our speakers and experts
    image

    Frank Häusler

    Chief Strategist Vontobel

    Frank Häusler joined Vontobel’s Asset Management Multi Asset Boutique in 2018 as Head of Macroeconomic and Cross-Asset Research and was appointed Chief Strategist in 2019. In July 2020, Frank took over the lead role for Investment Strategy and Asset Allocation of WM Investments & Thematics as Chief Investment Strategist. He is a voting member of the Asset Allocation Committee.

    Prior to joining Vontobel, from 2014 to 2018, he worked at Marcuard Family Office as Chief Investment Officer and was in the Investment Advisory Board of a large US family office. From 2009 until 2013, Frank served at Wegelin Private Bank and its successor organization, 1741 Asset Management. His positions included Head of Research, Head of Portfolio Management and ultimately, CEO of 1741 Asset Management. He was also the portfolio manager of award winning liquid alternatives funds.

    Frank Häusler holds a Master’s degree in Mathematics from the ETH Zurich.

     

      

    Porträt von Peter Romanzina, Head of Swiss Research

    Peter Romanzina

    Head of Swiss Equity Research

    Peter Romanzina joined Vontobel as Head of Brokerage in September 2010. He began his career at various banks in portfolio and asset management in Geneva, London, and Zurich before joining Schweizerische Kreditanstalt (SKA) in 1995. At SKA and later for Credit Suisse/First Boston (CSFB), he began as a research salesman for Swiss equities in Zurich and London. From 1998 to 2000, he headed Swiss Equity Research for CSFB and was also responsible for the Swiss equity strategy. From 2001 to 2010, he headed the brokerage business in Switzerland for Kepler (formerly Julius Baer) and was a member of the European Management Board.

    Peter Romanzina is chartered financial analyst (CFA), financial risk manager (FRM), certified financial analyst and portfolio manager (CIIA).

     

      

    Porträtaufnahme von SRF TV-Moderatorin Christine Maier (zur Verfügung gestellt)

    Christine Maier

    Journalist, TV anchor and entrepreneur

    Over the last 30 years, Christine Maier has presented a range of TV formats on Swiss and German channels SRF, ZDF and Bayerische Rundfunk (BR). On Swiss TV, she was presenter and editor-in-chief for “Club” and news presenter on “10vor10”. In 2013, she took over as chief editor for “SonntagsBlick”.

    Since May 2016, she has focused on her mandate as communications consultant for leading management personalities and works as public appearance coach, media trainer and host at economic and political events.

     
     

      

    Business correspondent Jens Korte on the Wall Street trading floor (portrait shot)

    Jens Korte

    Independent correspondent

    Jens Korte runs an independent correspondent bureau in the heart of the financial district in New York. He reports live from Wall Street on a daily basis for Swiss and German TV stations. Jens Korte is live on air from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange or from all over Brooklyn and Manhattan. In 2003 he founded new york german press. The clients range from TV stations as SRF, ntv, Deutsche Welle to radio and print clients like Die Zeit. Jens Korte experienced the dotcom era, the attacks on 9-11, the recovery of New York and Wall Street, the financial crisis, the pandemic and five presidents in the White House. After a two year training program at the chemical company Hoechst AG near Frankfurt Jens Korte studied and graduated in economics in Berlin. While in university he started writing for newspapers and eventually moved to the Big Apple. He is married and has one son.

     
     
 

  

  

  

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Example image on the megatrend of technology conversion: A robotic hand tries to catch a goose feather, which slowly floats downward. © GettyImages

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