Investment Outlook 2021

Airports have become a no-go zone during the pandemic. But air travel may well take wing once vaccines become available. So can the global economy in 2021, which we expect to fly past the worst Covid-19 storm clouds. Therefore: “Take your seats in economy class.”

 

Three scenarios and four routes to success in 2021

In the financial markets, the pandemic seems to have already been forgotten. After we experienced the fastest drop in equity prices in history, the markets recovered at a breakneck pace. This recovery was driven by political measures and the central banks, which set up assistance programs and provided liquidity on an unprecedented scale. With the vaccines now available and currently being administered, the horizon has brightened once again:

“Fading risks fill the sails of financial markets”

Our investment experts have evaluated three economic scenarios for 2021, each with a different probability of occurrence.

Our baseline scenario with the highest probability of occurrence:

  • Weak recovery in Q1
  • Followed by a stronger rebound in Q2/3, leading in Q4 to less uncertainty about the future trajectory of Covid-19
  • Emerging Markets will act as the growth engine

 

In this video, follow our Investment Outlook 2021 and learn about the three scenarios and their background in detail. What strategic considerations does the somewhat uncertain starting position of 2021 entail?

 

  


Following a brief introductory presentation, Dan Scott, our Chief Investment Officer, answers investors’ questions about Vontobel’s Investment Outlook 2021. © Vontobel, recorded on January 14, 2021, 1:30 p.m. (CET).

 

 
  • More about our speakers and experts
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    Frank Häusler

    Chief Strategist Vontobel

    Frank Häusler joined Vontobel’s Asset Management Multi Asset Boutique in 2018 as Head of Macroeconomic and Cross-Asset Research and was appointed Chief Strategist in 2019. In July 2020, Frank took over the lead role for Investment Strategy and Asset Allocation of WM Investments & Thematics as Chief Investment Strategist. He is a voting member of the Asset Allocation Committee.

    Prior to joining Vontobel, from 2014 to 2018, he worked at Marcuard Family Office as Chief Investment Officer and was in the Investment Advisory Board of a large US family office. From 2009 until 2013, Frank served at Wegelin Private Bank and its successor organization, 1741 Asset Management. His positions included Head of Research, Head of Portfolio Management and ultimately, CEO of 1741 Asset Management. He was also the portfolio manager of award winning liquid alternatives funds.

    Frank Häusler holds a Master’s degree in Mathematics from the ETH Zurich.

     

      

    Porträt von Peter Romanzina, Head of Swiss Research

    Peter Romanzina

    Head of Swiss Equity Research

    Peter Romanzina joined Vontobel as Head of Brokerage in September 2010. He began his career at various banks in portfolio and asset management in Geneva, London, and Zurich before joining Schweizerische Kreditanstalt (SKA) in 1995. At SKA and later for Credit Suisse/First Boston (CSFB), he began as a research salesman for Swiss equities in Zurich and London. From 1998 to 2000, he headed Swiss Equity Research for CSFB and was also responsible for the Swiss equity strategy. From 2001 to 2010, he headed the brokerage business in Switzerland for Kepler (formerly Julius Baer) and was a member of the European Management Board.

    Peter Romanzina is chartered financial analyst (CFA), financial risk manager (FRM), certified financial analyst and portfolio manager (CIIA).

     

      

    Porträtaufnahme von SRF TV-Moderatorin Christine Maier (zur Verfügung gestellt)

    Christine Maier

    Journalist, TV anchor and entrepreneur

    Over the last 30 years, Christine Maier has presented a range of TV formats on Swiss and German channels SRF, ZDF and Bayerische Rundfunk (BR). On Swiss TV, she was presenter and editor-in-chief for “Club” and news presenter on “10vor10”. In 2013, she took over as chief editor for “SonntagsBlick”.

    Since May 2016, she has focused on her mandate as communications consultant for leading management personalities and works as public appearance coach, media trainer and host at economic and political events.

     
     

      

    Wirtschaftskorrespondent Jens Korte auf dem Trading-Floor der Wall Street (Porträtaufnahme)

    Jens Korte

    Independent correspondent

    Jens Korte runs an independent correspondent bureau in the heart of the financial district in New York. He reports live from Wall Street on a daily basis for Swiss and German TV stations. Jens Korte is live on air from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange or from all over Brooklyn and Manhattan. In 2003 he founded new york german press. The clients range from TV stations as SRF, ntv, Deutsche Welle to radio and print clients like Die Zeit. Jens Korte experienced the dotcom era, the attacks on 9-11, the recovery of New York and Wall Street, the financial crisis, the pandemic and five presidents in the White House. After a two year training program at the chemical company Hoechst AG near Frankfurt Jens Korte studied and graduated in economics in Berlin. While in university he started writing for newspapers and eventually moved to the Big Apple. He is married and has one son.

     
     
 

  

Key takeaway: The four routes to success

Our baseline scenario implies:

  1. The world gets vaccinated: A successful Covid-19 vaccine roll-out should reduce uncertainty around the globe and kick-start the “new normal”.
  2. Emerging Markets as the growth engine: We expect Emerging Markets to drive the economic recovery, predominantly powered by Asian countries such as China.
  3. The “new normal” is the “old normal”: Many structural forces which were already at play – low growth, low rates and inflation – should continue.
  4. Governments are going green: Covid-19 presents an opportunity to accelerate the shift towards a green future. We expect governments to not only provide “regular” fiscal support packages, but also “green” ones. Top topics here: the “Green New Deal”, the “European Green Deal” and the “Carbon-Neutral 2060 Plan” which could trigger investments up to USD 18 trillion.
 

  

  

Even the smallest undertaking starts with a conversation

Do you have further questions?
Or would you like to discuss one of 2022’s top topics with our investment experts?

 
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Worth reading in this context

  

  

How to cope with the Corona debt?

Dr. Theo Waigel, former finance minister and mastermind of the Euro: “Given the right policies, this debt burden can be managed.”

Watch the complete interview (in German)