Investment Outlook 2021

Airports have become a no-go zone during the pandemic. But air travel may well take wing once vaccines become available. So can the global economy in 2021, which we expect to fly past the worst Covid-19 storm clouds. Therefore: “Take your seats in economy class.”


Three scenarios and four routes to success in 2021

In the financial markets, the pandemic seems to have already been forgotten. After we experienced the fastest drop in equity prices in history, the markets recovered at a breakneck pace. This recovery was driven by political measures and the central banks, which set up assistance programs and provided liquidity on an unprecedented scale. With the vaccines now available and currently being administered, the horizon has brightened once again:

“Fading risks fill the sails of financial markets”

Our investment experts have evaluated three economic scenarios for 2021, each with a different probability of occurrence.

Our baseline scenario with the highest probability of occurrence:

  • Weak recovery in Q1
  • Followed by a stronger rebound in Q2/3, leading in Q4 to less uncertainty about the future trajectory of Covid-19
  • Emerging Markets will act as the growth engine


In this video, follow our Investment Outlook 2021 and learn about the three scenarios and their background in detail. What strategic considerations does the somewhat uncertain starting position of 2021 entail?



Following a brief introductory presentation, Dan Scott, our Chief Investment Officer, answers investors’ questions about Vontobel’s Investment Outlook 2021. © Vontobel, recorded on January 14, 2021, 1:30 p.m. (CET).


  • About our speaker and expert
    Porträtaufnahme von Dan Scott, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) im Vontobel Wealth Management und früherer TV-Moderator für CNBC sowie regelmässiger Mitarbeiter des Wall Street Journal

    Dan Scott

    CIO Wealth Management

    Dan Scott has more than 20 years of capital market expertise across all asset classes and markets. Before joining Vontobel in 2017 as Deputy CIO and Head of the Investment Office, Dan, who was born in Rheinfelden, Switzerland, worked for many years at Credit Suisse and Kepler Equities. He began his career as a financial journalist in the late 1990s, first at Dow Jones and later at CNBC in Frankfurt and Zurich.



Key takeaway: The four routes to success

Our baseline scenario implies:

  1. The world gets vaccinated: A successful Covid-19 vaccine roll-out should reduce uncertainty around the globe and kick-start the “new normal”.
  2. Emerging Markets as the growth engine: We expect Emerging Markets to drive the economic recovery, predominantly powered by Asian countries such as China.
  3. The “new normal” is the “old normal”: Many structural forces which were already at play – low growth, low rates and inflation – should continue.
  4. Governments are going green: Covid-19 presents an opportunity to accelerate the shift towards a green future. We expect governments to not only provide “regular” fiscal support packages, but also “green” ones. Top topics here: the “Green New Deal”, the “European Green Deal” and the “Carbon-Neutral 2060 Plan” which could trigger investments up to USD 18 trillion.


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“Take-Off” with Vontobel

The infographic on our Investment Outlook

  • economic scenarios 2021
  • market developments 2021
  • long-term megatrends

TO the infographic


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