US midterms November 2022: resulting in a divided government?

The past has shown us: nearly every US President lost seats in the House of Representatives, or in the Senate, at the midterms. How likely is it that this will also be the case for Joe Biden? Would a loss of the majority mean a radical change in policies, or reduce his chances of re-election in 2024?

Find out which scenarios would impact geopolitics and investors the most.


In our video: a look at the US midterms and afterwards

Source: © Vontobel, 3 October 2022, 11:00am (CET)

Recording of the discussion between Dr. Reto Cueni, Chief Economist at Vontobel, and Prof. Dr. Stephan Bierling, bestselling author and Professor at the University of Regensburg.


Overview of the focus themes

  • What are the chances that the House of Representatives will fall into the hands of the Republicans on 8 November?
  • Will the Democrats retain the majority in the Senate? For Joe Biden, governing is already anything but easy—in the Senate the majority hangs on one seat.
  • What factors form the basis for the fact that the USA is staging a comeback as the strong voice of world politics? Over the last 20 years following the war in Iraq, many states—including western states—have expressed reservations regarding US-based geopolitics. What part has Joe Biden played in the comeback?
  • What will it take for the majority of the Democrats to support their current President in running for a second term? At 82, he would then be the oldest President in the history of the USA.
  • Why does Donald Trump have a good chance of running in the 2024 elections as a candidate for the Republicans, despite the fact that some party strategists don’t necessarily want to see him in pole position? Would a second Trump term differ much from the first?
  • Will a potential rearming lead to new growth impulses? How is the role of China likely to evolve?

Following their discussion, the experts answer questions from the livestream audience – mainly on geopolitical themes connected with the tensions surrounding the war in Ukraine and developments relating to Taiwan.


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