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We stick to our scenarios Goldilocks Again, Growth Fatigue and Inflation Scare. In our original forecast from November 2017, we assumed in our basis scenario Goldilocks Again that the status quo would be maintained despite Donald Trump’s anti-trade rhetoric and that the U.S. would respect global trade accords. Now, however, trade conflicts between the USA and the rest of World have escalated. This clearly increased both the probability of Growth Fatigue and the probability of Inflation Scare. At the same time, America’s smaller dependence on exports shields it from the escalating trade to a degree. This increases the tendency to a more de-synchronized World economy.
We stick to our scenarios Goldilocks Again, Growth Fatigue and Inflation Scare, but shift their probabilities.