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New Perspectives—Global Trade Shifts

The next chapter

Geopolitical tensions, the rapid rise of artificial intelligence with its opportunities and risks, and a new U.S. trade policy have fundamentally impacted market dynamics. For Investors, these shifts have created an environment of heightened volatility. While economic growth may persist, so too may uncertainty. How can investors adapt to this evolving landscape and uncover new opportunities?

Our experts have identified three key measures to help investors build more resilient portfolios and navigate these new waters with confidence.

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Three measures to increase portfolio resilience

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1. Relocation of supply chains to domestic markets

  • New tariffs are influencing global trade dynamics.
  • Supply chains will be relocated closer to domestic markets.
  • Uncertainty about economic growth could lead to persistently high interest rates.

Investments with more reliable income streams could help to counter the uncertain economic situation.

2. Growing risk of trade wars

  • Trade tariffs imposed by individual countries can often lead to countermeasures.
  • Due to the recent changes in U.S. trade policy and the resulting tariff uncertainties, existing trade partnerships are being called into question and new ones are being formed.

Markets with lower risk of trade conflicts could benefit from the formation of new partnerships.

Photo of a truck driving through a metal gate with a long fence in the background.
Photo of a truck driving through a metal gate with a long fence in the background.

2. Growing risk of trade wars

  • Trade tariffs imposed by individual countries can often lead to countermeasures.
  • Due to the recent changes in U.S. trade policy and the resulting tariff uncertainties, existing trade partnerships are being called into question and new ones are being formed.

Markets with lower risk of trade conflicts could benefit from the formation of new partnerships.

Bird's-eye view of two large cargo ships.

3. Emerging markets on the rise

  • Economies with similar export structures and geographical proximity to China could benefit.
  • Other criteria for suitable countries include competitive labor costs, good infrastructure, and a qualified workforce.

Investments in selected emerging markets that are not impacted by U.S. tariffs may increase.

4. Tailwind for pharma, biotech and healthcare

  • Given the political significance of these sectors for the U.S. and the EU, rapid and consistent restructuring of the supply chains can be expected.
  • The relocation of supply chains is expected to shift the high turnover of Chinese companies in the U.S. to suppliers outside of China.

Companies outside of China that are well positioned to produce goods and provide services in the pharmaceutical, biotech and healthcare sectors could benefit.

Photo of a laboratory with a desk in the center and several bottles containing blue liquid placed on it.
Photo of a laboratory with a desk in the center and several bottles containing blue liquid placed on it.

Tailwind for pharma, biotech and healthcare

  • Given the political significance of these sectors for the U.S. and the EU, rapid and consistent restructuring of the supply chains can be expected.
  • The relocation of supply chains is expected to shift the high turnover of Chinese companies in the U.S. to suppliers outside of China.

Companies outside of China that are well positioned to produce goods and provide services in the pharmaceutical, biotech and healthcare sectors could benefit.

Frontal view of a cargo plane with its nose open and cargo boxes positioned in front of it.

5. Temporary inflation in the U.S.

  • Tariffs lead to higher prices for importing countries, which can trigger temporary inflation depending on consumer demand.

A temporary inflation period in the U.S. could offer good opportunities for fixed income securities.

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Our experts can help you identify other growth areas that offer potential investment opportunities. ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎

Global trade shifts: Creating new opportunities for your portfolio

Changing trade policies are bringing new momentum to the global markets. Existing trade partnerships are being called into question. At the same time, the establishment of new partnerships and the reorganization of supply chains is well underway. Although this creates uncertainty, it also offers new opportunities for investors.

Our experts are pleased to support you in identifying new opportunities and risks in the context of your portfolio and align them with your goals.

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Strategies for growth-oriented portfolios

There are a number of strategies that can be added to a portfolio to participate in market movements.

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Momentum strategies

These strategies are based on the expectation that successful trends will continue over a minimum period of time. Using a systematic approach, such trending stocks can be identified at an early stage, categorized according to momentum and added to the portfolio on an ongoing basis. ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎

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Recovery strategies

Even in years of solid equity performance, individual stocks can decouple from the market and underperform. Recovery strategies target companies that have suffered share price losses and then take strategic action to restore their competitiveness. ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎

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Uncertainty and volatility in today’s environment have highlighted the benefits of our disciplined Quality Growth philosophy, focused on proven businesses with inherent resilience and durability. Given the narrow tailwinds from the prior two years, we believe select quality companies may be attractively valued given their defensive growth characteristics.

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