Global trade shifts—Five theses on how U.S. trade policy is reshaping financial markets

Hardly a day goes by without headlines from Washington, Beijing or Brussels fueling volatility in global financial markets. After years of free trade and well-established international supply chains, issues such as industrial revitalization, economic nationalism, strategic independence and, increasingly, a shift away from globalization are now on the political agenda. This is particularly evident in the current tariff policy of the United States, which is once again focusing on protectionist measures amid geopolitical rivalries.

In April, the U.S. government had announced new import tariffs, only to suspend them shortly thereafter. The tone is getting tougher on China, while European exporters are also coming under fire. These are not isolated incidents, however, but rather the expression of a structural shift. Deglobalization is no longer a theoretical debate, but a reality. It is changing not only the economic rules of the game, but also the logic behind the actions of market participants.

Against this backdrop, our experts have formulated five key theses to help investors better understand current developments and review their investment strategies in light of these structural changes.

1. Supply chains rethought: production sites are being relocated
   The new tariff policy has prompted many global companies to fundamentally rethink their supply chains. Production processes are being moved closer to domestic markets, and location decisions are being made based on geopolitical considerations. While this restructuring brings greater independence, it also increases costs in many cases. This affects how companies are valued and has implications for investors and their investment horizons.
   
   
2. Trade conflicts: New trading partnerships emerge
   According to our experts, the structural changes in global trade are accompanied by a growing risk of trade conflicts. In the past, tariffs often provoked countermeasures and international agreements lost their relevance. The result could be the formation of new trading blocs, while existing alliances weaken or even collapse.
   
   
3. A boost for pharmaceutical, biotech, and healthcare
   The shift in global trade affects not only traditional industries, but also sectors such as biotechnology, healthcare, and pharmaceuticals. As these sectors are often given political priority, they could also experience economic tailwinds, not least through strategic support, regulatory advantages or tariff exemptions.
   
   
4. Global rebalancing: Focus on emerging markets
   Emerging market countries with a resilient infrastructure, stable political conditions, a skilled workforce, and geographic proximity to the Chinese economy are becoming more important. A similar export structure to China can be an advantage: the greater the similarity, the more likely it is that a country will be able to replace Chinese goods and services, especially in trade with the US, according to our experts. Not all emerging markets will benefit to the same extent, however, and geographic proximity to China does not automatically guarantee increased economic potential.
   
   
5. Inflation as a temporary effect
   Tariffs and protectionism tend to affect the prices of goods and services. In countries such as the US, which are heavily dependent on imports, this could lead to higher consumer prices. Depending on the elasticity of consumer demand, tariffs affect not only price levels but also economic growth. A low elasticity of consumer demand means that consumers do not significantly change their behavior or reduce their demand for a particular good when its price rises. This would be tantamount to a spike in inflation, which could slow economic growth. In such an environment, fixed income securities, among others, could become more attractive to investors.

The question for investors is how well their portfolios are prepared for the impact of structural changes in global trade. With this in mind, we offer you the opportunity to analyze and discuss your portfolio with our experts. This enables you to identify potential risks early on and take advantage of potential investment opportunities .

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