New Perspectives: Global Trade Shifts

Recent changes in U.S. trade policy have led to far-reaching shifts in global trade. Investors may want to consider whether their portfolios are prepared for these global changes. New tariffs and the associated uncertainty are calling established trade partnerships into question and are leading to a restructuring of global supply chains. What impact could these changes have on the different markets and the global economy as a whole? Our experts have developed five theses.

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Five impacts of US trade policy and what these could mean for investors

Relocation of supply chains to domestic markets

New tariffs are influencing global trade dynamics.
Supply chains will be relocated closer to domestic markets.
Uncertainty about economic growth could lead to persistently high interest rates.

Investments with more reliable income streams could help to counter the uncertain economic situation.

Growing risk of trade wars

Trade tariffs imposed by individual countries can often lead to countermeasures.
Due to the recent changes in US trade policy and the resulting tariff uncertainties, existing trade partnerships are being called into question and new ones are being formed.

Markets with lower risk of trade conflicts could benefit from the formation of new partnerships.

Emerging markets on the rise

Economies with similar export structures and geographical proximity to China could benefit.
Other criteria for suitable countries include competitive labor costs, good infrastructure, and a qualified workforce.

Investments in selected emerging markets that are not impacted by US tariffs may increase.

Tailwind for pharma, biotech and healthcare

Given the political significance of these sectors for the US and the EU, rapid and consistent restructuring of the supply chains can be expected.
The relocation of supply chains is expected to shift the high turnover of Chinese companies in the US to suppliers outside of China.

Companies outside of China that are well positioned to produce goods and provide services in the pharmaceutical, biotech and healthcare sectors could benefit.

Temporary inflation in the US

Tariffs lead to higher prices for importing countries, which can trigger temporary inflation depending on consumer demand.

A temporary inflation period in the US could offer good opportunities for fixed income securities.

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Global trade shifts: Creating new opportunities for your portfolio

Changing trade policies are bringing new momentum to the global markets. Existing trade partnerships are being called into question. At the same time, the establishment of new partnerships and the reorganization of supply chains is well underway. Although this creates uncertainty, it also offers new opportunities for investors.

Our experts are pleased to support you in identifying new opportunities and risks in the context of your portfolio and align them with your goals.

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Good to know

There are a number of strategies that can be added to a portfolio to participate in market movements.

Momentum strategies

These strategies are based on the expectation that successful trends will continue over a minimum period of time. Using a systematic approach, such trending stocks can be identified at an early stage, categorized according to momentum and added to the portfolio on an ongoing basis. ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎

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Recovery strategies

Even in years of solid equity performance, individual stocks can decouple from the market and underperform. Recovery strategies target companies that have suffered share price losses and then take strategic action to restore their competitiveness. ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎

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New Perspectives—Global Trade Shifts