New Perspectives— A World in Motion

Based on Investment Outlook 2025

After a year of rather restrictive monetary policy and weaker economic indicators, a year of change is on the horizon. Driven by political change and high levels of investment in technology, the global economy could return to growth. This could create new opportunities for investors.

Read the scenario our experts have derived from their analysis for the year 2025.

Our base scenario

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Economic Growth

The easing of monetary policy should improve financial conditions and restore investor confidence. The mood of optimism following the US elections could boost global economic growth and US investments in particular.

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Inflation

A balanced monetary policy, moderate economic growth and stable commodity prices should ensure that inflation remains under control. We believe the likelihood of a second wave of inflation is low.

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Central Banks

As inflationary pressures abate, central banks should gradually return to normal monetary and interest rate policies. We expect further rate cuts this year, albeit at a moderate pace.

Growth areas

On a structural level, we see potential investment opportunities in two main areas.

Artificial Intelligence

The broad potential applications of artificial intelligence are becoming increasingly clear. Investments of more than USD 200 billion in 2024 illustrate the immense potential that companies see in this technology. The wave of investment is expected to continue to accelerate.

Power consumption

Increasing power consumption due to artificial intelligence and the ongoing electrification of industry, such as new data centers and cloud infrastructure, is leading to rising demand for electricity. This growing demand for electricity creates new investment opportunities, from IT infrastructure to sustainable energy.

Our experts will be happy to show you further growth areas that offer potential investment opportunities.

Good to know

There are a number of strategies that can be added to a portfolio to participate in market movements.  

Momentum strategies

These strategies are based on the expectation that successful trends will continue over a minimum period of time. Using a systematic approach, such trending stocks can be identified at an early stage, categorized according to momentum and added to the portfolio on an ongoing basis. ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎

Recovery strategies

Even in years of solid equity performance, individual stocks can decouple from the market and underperform. Recovery strategies target companies that have suffered share price losses and then take strategic action to restore their competitiveness. ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎

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Prefer a personal call?

Our experts can help you identify other growth areas that offer potential investment opportunities. ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎

Risks to economic growth

It is important for investors to keep an eye on both the opportunities and the risks. What could jeopardize a return to stable economic growth?

Geopolitics

Geopolitical unrest and trade uncertainties could put pressure on global supply chains. Tensions in the Middle East and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continue to threaten the stability of energy supplies.

Growth

Despite further planned interest rate cuts: The lagged effects of the restrictive monetary policy of recent years still pose a small risk of recession. In addition, a trade conflict triggered by new tariffs in the US cannot be completely ruled out.

Inflation

The planned stimulus programs in both the US and China could increase inflationary pressures. In the case of the US, a strict immigration policy could further exacerbate labor shortages and trigger a rise in wages and prices.

Influence of US politics on the markets

As the world's largest economy, the United States and its policies have a significant impact on the development of global financial markets. This is not only directly through the expansion and contraction of trade relations or the influence of fiscal and tax policy on the investment climate, but also through the US dollar. Its value has a direct impact on the prices of commodities such as oil and gold, or on the debt burden of dollar-denominated countries.

New room for maneuver for the US government

With the Republican majority in the Senate and Congress, the so-called "red sweep", the administration has new room to maneuver in implementing its agenda. This is likely to have an impact on financial markets. So far, the agenda includes sweeping deregulation and tax cuts for US companies. Higher import tariffs and more restrictive immigration policies are also being discussed.

Portrait of Stefan Eppenberger

“US equities are worth a close look, even more so now given Donald Trump’s America First policy.”

Stefan Eppenberger, Chief Investment Strategist

 

The uncertainty that investors initially associate with a change in policy direction often opens up new opportunities. We can assist you with in-depth analysis and customized investment solutions.

Is your portfolio ready for 2025?

There is much to suggest that 2025 could be a year of growth for the global economy, driven by political change, economic stimulus and high levels of investment in technology. But there are also risks, such as a potential trade war or a new wave of inflation, that investors should be aware of.

Finding the right investment strategy in a changing market environment can be challenging. This year, striking the right balance between a well-diversified portfolio and a focus on individual growth areas could be critical for investors.

If you would like to learn more about possible investment strategies in the context of current developments, please contact our experts for a consultation.

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