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First cracks appearing in US consumption

Pubblicato il 04.06.2024 CEST

Macroeconomic update for June 2024  

All eyes have been on the world’s largest economy, with investors eagerly dissecting data points and searching for clues when the US Federal Reserve might start cutting interest rates. The recession many anticipated last year hasn’t materialized yet amid a strong labor market and resilient consumers. What does the current picture tell us? We see the first cracks starting to appear in US consumption.  

Key Takeaways

  1. Is the US economy cooling down?  
    While having proven its resilience over the past year, the US economy started the year on a softer footing and the services industry has weakened.  
  2. Can US consumers stay strong?   
    A mix of real personal income growth having peaked with lower wage pressure and sticky inflation, tight lending conditions, and high interest rates present headwinds.   
  3. And what does this mean for monetary policy?  
    The Fed will likely cut rates later than originally anticipated. Some of its counterparts around the world have decided to push ahead with lowering rates ahead of the Fed.  

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Pubblicato il 04.06.2024 CEST

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  • Dan Scott

    Dan Scott

    Head of Multi Asset, CIO

    Dan Scott è entrato in Vontobel nel 2017. È Head of Multi Asset, AL servizio di clienti istituzionali e privati. Prima di entrare in Vontobel, ha lavorato per molti anni presso Credit Suisse in qualità di Deputy Head of Equity Research e presso Kepler come specialista per azioni svizzere. Ha iniziato la sua carriera verso la fine degli anni 1990 come giornalista, dapprima presso Dow Jones & Company come reporter per il Wall Street Journal, Barron’s e DJ Newswires e successivamente come corrispondente in diretta per CNBC.

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