The global economy is booming

Videos, Insights, CIO Update, Geopolitics
02.06.2021 by Dan Scott Reading time: 1 minute(s)

Our macro view as of June 2021

Positive outlook in summer 2021: Check out here whether the optimistic forecasts from our Investment Outlook 2021 remain confirmed.


How we position ourselves strategically:
The monthly CIO Update analyzes the current market environment and reveals its economic background. It is presented by Frank Häusler, our Chief Strategist, and Sandrine Perret, Senior Economist.

  

Peak of the global economy in summer 2021

In most countries, sentiment among companies is very good based on the PMI data . Globally, economic growth is about to peak. The Eurozone and Japan are still lagging behind, but they will also follow the trend.

Inflation is also expected to peak this year due to various base effects. However, central banks also will look through due to the transitory nature of the inflation overshoot. Thus, we do not expect a recession and anticipate positive equity returns.

  

In summary, we can expect the following:

  • A global peak in economic growth in the summer of 2021.
  • Inflation rising and overshooting central bank targets but then to moderate again: Central banks will continue to support but not increase their efforts.
  • No economic recession and therefore positive stock returns (risk-on positioned).

  

  

 

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For private investors

Think ahead, invest thematically

Thematic investments are suitable for building on an already diversified portfolio. However, they are less suitable if you are only initiating diversification.

Find out why

 

  

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Investment Outlook 2021 (with infographics)

In the financial markets, the pandemic seems to have already been forgotten. With good reason? Our Chief Investment Officer reveals the details and three scenarios.

Explore our basline scenario