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New Perspectives—Global Trade Shifts

Livestream on July 10, 2025

Recent changes in U.S. trade policy have led to far-reaching shifts in global trade. Investors may want to consider whether their portfolios are prepared for these global changes. New tariffs and the associated uncertainty are calling established trade partnerships into question and are leading to a restructuring of global supply chains. What impact could these changes have on the different markets and the global economy as a whole? Our experts have developed five theses.

Livestream: Trump, trade and tariffs

90 days after Trump's speech, it is evident that US trade policy is undergoing a fundamental shift, with far-reaching consequences for supply chains, markets and geopolitical power structures. But will the announced tariffs actually be implemented, or is another extension on the horizon? And what role does the conflict in the Middle East play in these developments?

Our experts analyze the situation and provide insights into potential market reactions.

Find out more in our expert livestream. Register now!

When:  Thursday, July 10, 2025, 1 p.m. CEST (this livestream in English)  
              Thursday, July 10, 2025, 3 p.m. CEST (register for livestream in German)  
Where: Online
Speakers: Jens Korte & Christoph Boner

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Speakers

Portrait of Jens Korte

Jens Korte

Business journalist and US expert

Having moved to New York during Bill Clinton's presidency in the late 1990s, he has reported directly from Wall Street for SRF TV and Radio, NZZ, ntv, Die Zeit, Deutsche Welle and the Austrian Börsenkurier, among others, ever since. He is also a visiting professor at the Private University of Applied Sciences in Bern and sits on the board of the German International School New York.

Portrait of Christoph Boner

Christoph Boner

Chief Investment Allocation Officer

Christoph Boner joined Vontobel in January 2025 as Chief Investment Allocation Officer, taking responsibility for asset allocation within the Private Clients division. Prior to this, he was CIO at IHAG Privatbank, where he led the investment processes, investment communication, advisory services and asset management divisions. Prior to this, he held various management positions in the investment area at Julius Baer and VP Bank Group. Christoph holds a Master's degree from the University of St Gallen and is certified as a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA), Financial Risk Manager (FRM), Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) and Certified ESG Analyst (CESGA). He is currently completing his training to become a Certified Crypto Finance Expert (CCFE).

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Five impacts of US trade policy and what these could mean for investors

Relocation of supply chains to domestic markets

  • New tariffs are influencing global trade dynamics.
  • Supply chains will be relocated closer to domestic markets.
  • Uncertainty about economic growth could lead to persistently high interest rates.

Investments with more reliable income streams could help to counter the uncertain economic situation.

Growing risk of trade wars

  • Trade tariffs imposed by individual countries can often lead to countermeasures.
  • Due to the recent changes in US trade policy and the resulting tariff uncertainties, existing trade partnerships are being called into question and new ones are being formed.

Markets with lower risk of trade conflicts could benefit from the formation of new partnerships.

Growing risk of trade wars

  • Trade tariffs imposed by individual countries can often lead to countermeasures.
  • Due to the recent changes in US trade policy and the resulting tariff uncertainties, existing trade partnerships are being called into question and new ones are being formed.

Markets with lower risk of trade conflicts could benefit from the formation of new partnerships.

Emerging markets on the rise

  • Economies with similar export structures and geographical proximity to China could benefit.
  • Other criteria for suitable countries include competitive labor costs, good infrastructure, and a qualified workforce.

Investments in selected emerging markets that are not impacted by US tariffs may increase.

Tailwind for pharma, biotech and healthcare

  • Given the political significance of these sectors for the US and the EU, rapid and consistent restructuring of the supply chains can be expected.
  • The relocation of supply chains is expected to shift the high turnover of Chinese companies in the US to suppliers outside of China.

Companies outside of China that are well positioned to produce goods and provide services in the pharmaceutical, biotech and healthcare sectors could benefit.

Tailwind for pharma, biotech and healthcare

  • Given the political significance of these sectors for the US and the EU, rapid and consistent restructuring of the supply chains can be expected.
  • The relocation of supply chains is expected to shift the high turnover of Chinese companies in the US to suppliers outside of China.

Companies outside of China that are well positioned to produce goods and provide services in the pharmaceutical, biotech and healthcare sectors could benefit.

Temporary inflation in the US

  • Tariffs lead to higher prices for importing countries, which can trigger temporary inflation depending on consumer demand.

A temporary inflation period in the US could offer good opportunities for fixed income securities.

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Global trade shifts: Creating new opportunities for your portfolio

Changing trade policies are bringing new momentum to the global markets. Existing trade partnerships are being called into question. At the same time, the establishment of new partnerships and the reorganization of supply chains is well underway. Although this creates uncertainty, it also offers new opportunities for investors.

Our experts are pleased to support you in identifying new opportunities and risks in the context of your portfolio and align them with your goals.

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Good to know

There are a number of strategies that can be added to a portfolio to participate in market movements.  

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Momentum strategies

These strategies are based on the expectation that successful trends will continue over a minimum period of time. Using a systematic approach, such trending stocks can be identified at an early stage, categorized according to momentum and added to the portfolio on an ongoing basis. ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎

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Recovery strategies

Even in years of solid equity performance, individual stocks can decouple from the market and underperform. Recovery strategies target companies that have suffered share price losses and then take strategic action to restore their competitiveness. ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎

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