A choppy start to the year

Macroeconomic update for February 2026

The year started off on a choppy note, with geopolitical developments front and center. Markets faced pockets of volatility but have held up relatively well, digesting the busy news flow. We look beyond the geopolitical noise and see a positive growth backdrop, which we believe is poised to benefit cyclical assets like emerging markets and commodities. The Multi Asset Boutique shares its views on recent market developments and its asset allocation in the latest CIO Monthly video. 

  Key Takeaways  

1. Economic engine starting up again 
   The Multi Asset Boutique remains constructive about global economic growth, which it sees as supportive of corporate earnings.
   
   
2. An eye on emerging markets 
   Emerging-market equities in general have historically tended to benefit from a weaker US dollar.
   
   
3. Diversification moves 
   The Multi Asset Boutique’s Investment Committee has upgraded commodities to overweight from neutral. This is another area that is likely to benefit from a weaker US dollar, as well as from easing monetary policy, fiscal stimulus, and capital expenditure linked to artificial intelligence. 

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