Analyses based on what we know on Day 9
© Vontobel, March 4, 2022, 11 a.m.
Video of the dialogue between Dan Scott, Head Vontobel Multi Asset, and Eastern Europe expert Benno Zogg, Senior Researcher and Team Leader, Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich.
Summary of the main topics discussed
For a long time, the world couldn’t be sure: Will this war come or will it remain a diplomatic conflict? Benno Zogg is convinced that the West’s uncertainty about how to read Russia has not been confined to just the last few months. If you look back a bit further, but with today’s level of knowledge, you almost have to admit that the escalation came pre-announced.
According to Benno Zogg, Putin sees himself on an historic mission, and it is important to keep that in the back of our mind. Unfortunately, we are no longer in an escalation, but rather an “escalation of the escalation.”
In the replay, you’ll find out more about possible scenarios, what is at stake for Europe and Switzerland, and how China’s ambivalent role should be understood.
“We are witnessing the results of an ongoing escalation stretching out over the last three decades.”
Topics from an investment perspective
- How will the Ukraine crisis affect energy policy and the commodity markets, especially the energy market?
- Keyword inflation: What does it mean that the war comes on the heels of an existing crisis, i.e. that we are still dealing with the long-term consequences of Covid-19, and that inflation in many countries is at a high level?
- What dynamics can be expected for economic growth in China and the USA?
Questions from the live stream audience
- Is Russia losing the information war outside the country? Even internally, is Putin about to lose his monopoly on the narrative?
- Is the West able to channel information into the Russian system? If so, what are the risks?
- What is the outlook for the energy sector? Can production be ramped up? What short-term reactive measures could help alleviate shortages?
- Is there scope for a neutral UN mission? Would that have to be a mission on Russian terms?
- What are the countervailing forces that have been preventing a sell-off in equities so far?