What top themes are likely to characterize the financial markets in the longer term? How do individual asset classes such as bonds, equities or commodities usually react to geopolitical tensions? Our experts present the three long-term investment themes, together with Vontobel’s baseline scenario for economic trends 2023.
In his latest video statements, our Chief Economist explains the backstories to the themes “Greenflation”, “Slowbalization” and “Financial Repression”. Find out more by clicking on the individual tiles below.
Reto Cueni joined Vontobel Asset Management in 2014 as a Senior Economist and was appointed Chief Economist in 2020. His focus is on longer term topics to support Vontobel’s positioning as a thought leader.
Prior to joining Vontobel Asset Management, from 2009 to 2014, he worked as an empirical researcher and lecturer at the Economics Department of the University of Zurich. He started his career in 2006 as a quantitative analyst in Equity Research at Vontobel Investment Banking.
Reto holds a Master’s degree and a PhD in Economics from the University of Zurich. He also studied at Università degli Studi in Siena, and at the Columbia University in New York.
Head Investment Solutions
Thomy Zünd joined Vontobel in 2018 as Senior Investment Advisor and was appointed Head of Investment Solutions in 2021. Together with his team, he develops, among other things, the appropriate investment solutions for different market and client situations.
Before joining Vontobel, he worked in various investment-focused roles, including as an equity analyst, investment strategist and portfolio manager.
Thomy holds a Business Economist qualification from the University of Applied Sciences St. Gallen. He also holds a Master’s in International Management and is a Certified International Investment Analyst.
The specter of inflation would appear to be getting company: On the basis of historic data, there are now numerous portents of a recession gathering on the investment horizon. At any rate, in eight out of ten cases in which the interest rate curve inverted, there was an economic downturn. Fiscal-political stimuli or rescue rings are currently not expected. They would only invalidate central banks’ efforts to curb inflation. Until inflation 2023 starts to fall steadily, we do not expect any change of course on the part of central banks.
So, are we looking at a year in which investors should steer clear of the financial markets?
The good news: Many of these interdependent and interconnected factors are continuously priced into the markets. As shown by, amongst other things, the price fluctuations before and after central banks’ interest rate hikes, releases of new consumer price indices, employment rates and so on. Each time expectations were raised or dashed, the compass corrected itself.
That gives us an indication of the opportunities and risks which investors should have on their radar in 2023.
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