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After the cut

Publié le 01.10.2024 HAEC

Macroeconomic update for October 2024

The month of September largely revolved around the US Federal Reserve’s rate cut decision and investors’ expectations for the size of the reduction (25 or 50 basis points) – and, more importantly, the path ahead. The vast majority of investors continue to believe a soft landing can be achieved; so, no recession after the first rate cut. This has, however, been a rare accomplishment in the last four decades. In a context of an uncertain economic environment and the looming US presidential election, which tends to fuel volatility, what is the Multi Asset team’s take, and how are they approaching asset allocation?

Key Takeaways

  1. The path ahead
    While concerns about inflation now seem to have taken a back seat, we believe the weakening growth outlook should be approached with caution.
  2. Under pressure
    key leading economic indicators remain under pressure, August employment data fell short of expectations, and businesses sentiment is increasingly clouded by concerns over future sales.
  3. Revising the script
    The Vontobel Investment Committee reduced its overall equity allocation to neutral from overweight, moving cash to neutral from underweight.

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Vers l'article

Publié le 01.10.2024 HAEC

À PROPOS DES L'AUTEURS

  • Dan Scott

    Dan Scott

    Head of Multi Asset, CIO

    Dan Scott a rejoint Vontobel en 2017. Il est Head of Multi Asset et est au service tant de la clientèle institutionnelle que privée. Avant de rejoindre Vontobel, il a travaillé durant de nombreuses années pour Credit Suisse en tant que Deputy Head of Equity Research ainsi que pour Kepler comme spécialiste en actions suisses. Il a démarré sa carrière vers la fin des années 1990 en tant que journaliste, tout d'abord chez Dow Jones & Company comme reporter pour le Wall Street Journal, Barron’s et DJ Newswires et ensuite comme correspondant à l'antenne pour CNBC.

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  • Mario Montagnani

    Mario Montagnani

    Senior Investment Strategist

    Mario Montagnani è entrato in Vontobel nel 2011. È Senior Investment Strategist nell’Investment Strategy Team all’interno di Multi Asset e membro votante del Multi Asset Investment Committee. Prima di entrare in Vontobel, ha accumulato una profonda esperienza sui mercati finanziari con particolare attenzione all'asset class azionaria in vari ruoli come analista e responsabile del settore dei beni di consumo, lavorando per istituzioni finanziarie come Crédit Agricole, Julius Bär, Pictet e UBS. Ha iniziato la sua carriera nella finanza nel 1999. Mario ha conseguito un master in finanza ed economia presso l’Università di Friburgo e parla correntemente italiano, inglese, francese e tedesco.

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