«An escalation with notice»
For a long time, the West was divided on how to read Russia's policy. A background discussion with Eastern Europe expert Benno Zogg, Senior Researcher at the Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich.
“The media’s breaking news concept makes it difficult to comprehend developments”
Georg Häsler, military expert and editor, NZZ
The “free world” is currently giving the impression of standing together as seldom before. Nevertheless, Russia is not isolated and the west’s many dependencies on her are not going away overnight.
In our video we take a look at what economic and political forces are at work and why military topics are returning to public discourse – hand-in-hand with a new consciousness of how valuable and in need of protection democracy is.
© Vontobel, March 31, 1:00 p.m.
Video recording of a discussion between Dan Scott, Head Vontobel Multi Asset, and military expert Georg Häsler, Editor at Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ).
“The first casualty when war comes is truth”, Aeschylus told the Greek people 2,500 years ago. In the shadows thrown by the war in Ukraine, his statement may never have been so right and, at the same time, so wrong. Because details of a war have never been so numerous – or so instantaneously available as today via social media. Plus, there are so many contradictory versions that everyone must “cobble together” their own version of the “truth”.
That even comes over in the media’s coverage and reporting.
Georg Häsler, military expert and editor at NZZ
“There is no reliable information. Period.”
One minute, we are being informed about retreats or the formation of humanitarian corridors, the next, we learn that heavy fighting is taking place. Georg Häsler, editor at Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ), is clear: “the media’s breaking news concept, according to which everything must be disseminated immediately, has reached its limits. We could even say it is increasing, rather than lifting, the fog surrounding this war. While the journalists reporting on the war in Iraq could be regarded as independent sources – even if they were strongly exposed to the US perspective – today it is difficult to contextualize details reliably”.
The huge effort it takes to try to get to the truth of the matter was made clear at the weekend in a report in the New York Times.
These examples show: the lack of clarity surrounding details of the war are making it more difficult to estimate the probability of various scenarios. For investors, it may therefore be helpful to compare current events with historical information.