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Investment Outlook 2024

Staying ahead, reaching beyond

Baseline scenario and market expectations with risk assessment, presented by Vontobel Chief Strategist

Investment Outlook 2024

Our experts present the Vontobel baseline scenario for economic trends in 2024. Join us to analyze the latest economic data and set the course for your investments. How should investors prepare for a recession – and why can’t we exclude one?

"We believe the recession hasn’t been avoided, just postponed."

Frank Häusler, Chief Strategist, Vontobel Multi-Asset  

Interest rates reached new heights in 2023 at a record-breaking speed. Going by previous experience, it’s only a matter of time before some “cracks” in the economic system emerge. But history also shows that the point at which it cracks is almost impossible to foresee: “Nobody can predict what or when something will crack.”

Crisis-tested and safety-conscious? 

If investors have got used to anything in recent years, it’s unpredictability. Coronavirus, war, inflation: what moves the world moves the markets.

With each crisis, the need for safety automatically goes up. And this quite clearly isn’t in cash again. The inflation-induced fall in value that many had to contend with was too rapid. At the same time, US government bond yields reached levels even experienced investors had only heard about in hearsay. Will this “safe haven” therefore become the focal point for all anticipated returns in the foreseeable future?


2023 under review: the best guide for 2024

Global economic growth surprised many in 2023. The promised recession never materialized. But unexpected as this is, it cannot be the foundation for stable growth. Much of it will be remembered as a “one-off effect” and not repeated in 2024:

  1. The robust US jobs market that was (still) impervious to increasing unemployment.
  2. The bullish consumers who (still) had significant coronavirus savings
  3. The US government that (still) found majorities to increase state spending
  4. The industries that (still) invested in new supply chains to become more independent thanks to nearshoring or friendshoring
  5. The crisis at smaller and medium-sized US banks that (still) prevented central banks from siphoning off liquidity from the system as planned
  6. The debt situation in companies that (still) benefited from attractive interest rates on loans, but will gradually have to renew them


Recession the baseline scenario for 2024

The review of 2023, suggests a scenario in which a recession hasn’t been avoided but simply postponed – until the above-mentioned one-off effects gradually fade. Whether things turn out for the better or worse will depend on various factors that can promote or hinder economic growth.

  • New bottleneck in energy supply
  • China supporting its economy through fiscal policy
  • Unexpectedly strong US consumption

Discover first-hand the scenarios our experts have constructed from the existing risks. How should you be guided by this when it comes to your portfolio? Which asset classes make sense, and when?

“If we do enter a recession , you’d want quality assets in your portfolio.”

Stefan Eppenberger, Head Multi-Asset Strategy  

Our experts are looking forward to answering these questions specifically tailored to your circumstances

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