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The window for a recession is closing

Publié le 23.02.2024 HNEC

Macroeconomic update for March 2024

We long expected 2024 to be marked by lower inflation, lower interest rates, and a recession. While the latter remains a valid scenario, the unemployment rate has not yet risen noticeably, and an increasing number of global leading indicators point to an improving situation. Declining inflation and the expectation of lower rates may have contributed. This means that the window for a recession seems to be slowly closing.

We have tactically increased equities to overweight from neutral amid signs of PMIs bottoming out and declining inflation that could lead central banks to cut rates more than what is currently expected by financial markets.

Key Takeaways

  1. Recession or no recession?
    The US labor market has proven robust and has propped up the economy. Without it weakening in coming months, the window for a recession is closing.
  2. Slowing inflation and rate cuts
    We expect inflation to continue to ease. We would argue that this could lead central banks to make more significant rate cuts than the market is currently pricing in.
  3. Going overweight equities
    We ugprade our position in stocks at the expense of our exposure to commodities.

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Publié le 23.02.2024 HNEC

À PROPOS DES L'AUTEURS

  • Dan Scott

    Dan Scott

    Head of Multi Asset, CIO

    Dan Scott a rejoint Vontobel en 2017. Il est Head of Multi Asset et est au service tant de la clientèle institutionnelle que privée. Avant de rejoindre Vontobel, il a travaillé durant de nombreuses années pour Credit Suisse en tant que Deputy Head of Equity Research ainsi que pour Kepler comme spécialiste en actions suisses. Il a démarré sa carrière vers la fin des années 1990 en tant que journaliste, tout d'abord chez Dow Jones & Company comme reporter pour le Wall Street Journal, Barron’s et DJ Newswires et ensuite comme correspondant à l'antenne pour CNBC.

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